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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1596)8/8/2008 12:38:29 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) of 3209
 
I agree that this top looks to have major, major significance in the $CRB. Given the lengthy (wow, like ten years) run in it, I've been on an extremely slow fuse to turn and seriously consider shorting commodities of any sort, but now that there is a nice clean fiver up, and a vigorous reversal, the tumblers are tumbling into place. I'm in no hurry of course. If a ten-year run is being corrected, you don't have to sell it in the first twenty trading days to turn a profit. Where the smaller degree declines lasted only 3-6 months, this one is likely to be a few quarters to years. My primary interest is in shorting the producers, as they are squeezed between the triple whammy of managing higher costs, lower selling prices, and falling volumes.

`BC
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