Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 164.29

+2.3%

Dec 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (2777)	10/18/1997 11:52:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 10921

Sam, Carl Johnson's argument was a spin on "nobody wants to buy the last 200mm fab and nobody wants to buy the first 300mm fab." This creates a sales discontinuity, a temporary slowdown in orders, and Carl picked the middle of 98 for his timing. This is a plausible scenario and it can probably be supported by case studies of major technology transitions. The timing is ballpark. I don't know how long or how deep the slowdown is likely to be, but I don't think CJ was predicting anything like the recent slowdown in '96. I think the main point of his caution was that the semi-equip values had risen to levels that would not tolerate any degree of business slowdown or missed estimates. I suspect his return to bullishness is mainly a response to the recent "valuation adjustment." Cary

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