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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: grogger who wrote (86)8/28/1996 11:39:00 PM
From: Johnathan R. Bowden   of 13594
 
You raise some good points, but consider this:
1) I predict (ha!) that AOL will have extreme difficulty in attracting 10m subscribers. Their gain in subscriber signups are being offset by defections to the ISP's. My brother-in-law just bought his first computer, a 166MHZ Dell and just signed up to AOL. I give him 3 months before he leaves for an ISP.
2) Do you know how thick my stack is of unopened "Free 15 hrs on AOL" disks? about 3inches and growing! I wager that costs them some money....defered for 24 months. My mother-in-law now gets AOL freebies, and she hardly knows the difference between a Mac and Win95 (MacOS is better), much less own a computer to signup on.
3) A stock price valuation is based on earnings and projected growth. They need to say 10-15m users in the next 2 years, otherwise the bottom will fall out of their stock price. Remember, their earnings are a sham, and they should've reported a 60m loss (rough number) for last quarter.
But you are right, time will tell...

Regards, John
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