To Ramsey Su - The key is answering customer needs and creating value for them.
No user gives a happy damn about CDMA vs TDMA vs GSM vs iDEN vs anything. If done correctly, its transparent to them. Only if the feature set or functionality is enhanced will they consider it. That's why NXTL is getting so many customers from cellular. If new feature sets are created by competition & they are valued by NXTL's target market, NXTL will be in for a fight. For NXTL, if they maintain competitive advantage through Direct Connect, and customers continue to want it, they should do extremely well.
My chief concern is competition in the mobile conferencing feature. I don't see this on the horizon but we should all be watchful. The world now knows why NXTL's ARPU is $70 when the rest of wireless is at $50. You can bet they will try to attack. Technological, regulatory & financial barriers to entry exist. We'll see how strong they are.
NXTL is also WAY OUT ahead in "first to market". However, this didn't help Lotus, Apple or Compuserve. They must maintain this as long as possible and create their "installed base". Resistance to change is a powerful force and this base could be a great strategic advantage LT. Again, we'll see.
As a multiyear investor in LORAL, I don't recall that Globalstar has any conferencing capability. Do you have any info on that? Does anyone else? Also, GlobalStar is planned to be $0.30 - $0.40 WHOLESALE. So mark users cost up from there. Looks like $0.12 for in network & $0.30 for local cellular would win out. Add $0.15 for long distance and maybe you're getting close to GlobaStar retail rates. Obviously, if you're interested in global coverage you're not looking at NXTL anyway. BUT, we may have N. American coverage w/ Clearnet & Mobilcom in 1998-2000. Again, we'll see.
IMHO, Iridium is going to be WAY too expensive to compete with NXTL or GlobalStar. If I remember correctly, they are looking at over $1.00/ minute rates. Am I right? If so, they will have to get way below $1.00 to compete with ANYONE.
Random thoughts on a Saturday -------
Bubbaroo |
