Bzooka, my view on CREAF is based both on recent market activity and it's own chart technicals.
So far, CREAF has held it's 50-day moving average, which is just a tad below where we are now. (around 22 5/8). I would watch what happens to other stocks that have, so far, held their 50ma. I think that a break below 22 1/2 could be ugly, in the short-term.
The MACD is not confirming the two most recent highs in CREAF, with each successive MACD high lower than the previous. This divergence can be seen in most of the tech stocks that have already derailed.
Not to scare anyone, but should CREAF get to my probable target of 17-18, there really isn't much support there. Next really good support below there is at 14. There is also support around 19, which might blunt any fall, or save CREAF should the market delcline reverse after a few more days. It certainly is relsiliant vs. most of the techs, and so it may get off lightly.
But keep in mind that it has gone a long way very quickly. Investor psychology is as important as fundamentals - a lot of people have made a lot of money very quickly in CREAF, and it will be psychologically easy for them to take profits in a general market decline.
IOM is in another category altogether, as it actually moved up on Friday, and is moving away from the 50ma to the upside. If IOM holds on Monday, then I will be in IOM. |
