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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (39851)	8/11/2008 11:52:58 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95640

The last couple of weeks have been quite strong for the SMH(and the SOX), but the question is where do we go from here? About this time last year, SMH was trading in the 36 to 38 region and went to 39 in Sep before it started a "vicious" downtrend in October. By November it traded in the 32 to 34 region for about 2 months when it dove again to the 28 to 30 region where it stayed for 3 months. Then in April and May it went back to the 32 to 34 region, but that didn't last long - right back down to the 28 to 30 region for the month of July. The last 2 weeks of trading were very similar to the 2 week upside in late January. However, in January, SMH "languished" in the 28 to 30 region for another 2 months. Will SMH do the same here in August that it did in January and move sideways for another couple of months, or will there be a breakout to the upside in the near term? At the moment, as I write this post, SMH has continued its upward trend from last week and is trading around 30.30. A nice start to the week so far. Let's see if the upside will hold and if SMH will trade in an upward pattern like the past April to May period.

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