Sonki, for what its worth, I am becoming concerned that Intc just might drift down to the high or middle 70s from here. I'm only saying in effort to be helpful, not cause anxiety.
Reason is from what I can see Intel earnings look flat not just for 4th quarter but for a year. Don't think that's in the stock price yet. Think the investment world is still in some denial. Takes a while for a beloved stock like Intc to bottom out. (And because people have long term faith it won't get REALLY hit the way a TI would, for example).
Certainly Kurlack from Merrill says intel will even earn a bit less in 98 than 97 -- 98: $3.50-3.75. Like Kurlack or hate him, he is certainly the most influential analyst on the street re:intc and I think the stock will trade more to his views than anyone elses given events of last week. At least until March earnings in April. Which is quite a ways away.
Don't know if this link to what I thought was a very good article in this weeks Barrons will work for someone w/out a WSJ account, but you all may get in under my "cookies":
interactive.wsj.com
What will prob. happen monday, early next week is a weak dead cat bounce w/intel. After that, I suspect the market in techs at least will drift somewhat lower for a while, but with much more discrimination. This is when the overvalued continue to get shot, the relatively undervalued, esp. if not connect w/the low price pc fears and general fears of less than killer pc sales this Xmas, will do well fast.
Wouldn't sell deep long term intels gains of course. That's against my religion. (Thats why I haven't sold deap long term Dell gains even thought I think Dell is somewhat overvalued from here and will probably go down a bit, at least after earnings. I know I will want to be holding lots of dell a year from now and just not sure I can time it that well, to take the big tax hit just so I can get out in hopes of getting back in cheaper. Its tough to sell a 40-25% grower just cause you only gonna make 10% over next six months, when you got to give the Government so much of money you want to redeploy.)
I think anyone who holds their intels will have huge gains from here looking back from three or more years forward, but for anyone that has margin/option or whatever short term concerns in addition to long term plans, personally ... well its what I did. Kept my long term deep intc gains, pruned some of the rest. Looking to get a more significant position at 75-8. Cause at that price I don't mind dead money for a while. Or at these prices in six nine months.
Hope no one hates me for saying this. Could be wrong of course.
Regards, Doug |
