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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: chris714 who wrote (1631)8/13/2008 10:20:29 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (3) of 3209
 
I am making no move as regards gold. It overshot the 100% target for A=C, going very nearly down to 127.2%, C vs A. These overshoots so often go further than that -- i.e., C will go 168.2% of the A. That would be down around the HUI 259 level, which would also overshoot a tad the 50% retracement of the entire rise out of the 2000 low.

It is obvious that it became very oversold in the shorter timeframes -- hell, it dropped in a near straight line there for a while -- and now we see it bouncing a bit, but I expect the down is not over. At this point, there is no need to pick the bottom, as I see many gold-heads trying to do here, as we can adopt the strategy of waiting for an unusual upside event -- an event where bear counts die and overhead resistance is taken out. In other words, we can wait for some evidence that the trend has changed.
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