"Chemistry ain't done science, and incremental improvement, 10-20-30% is big; 50% is game change. "
Well, of all the sciences, chemistry is the closest to being settled. At least for this sort of thing. It would take something radically new to get 100% or more greater capacity, and that is what is needed. The battery pack in the Volt weighs 400 pounds and costs around $10k. And it can only give 40 miles while giving performance like a regular car. Now, the design goal is 10 years until replacement. If you have shorter horizons, or deeper pockets, you can do better than that. But I don't think that is realistic for the mass market.
Bottom line, the Volt is pushing the available technology. Well beyond the point that car companies generally do. The biggest example is the battery pack. Neither of their two suppliers were able to deliver in the specified time frame, they were about 10 weeks late. Now, GM was able to juggle things so that the delay didn't impact the schedule. Which you can do when you aren't pushing the bleeding edge. But, it still isn't known whether or not the batteries can meet the 10 year life span. That, so far, is a gamble. Although not a huge one. Given the fact they want to ship in 2010, the current specs are locked down pretty tight. The fact they haven't solved all the problems as of yet shows exactly how speculative this all is.
"I think we are going to see electric/hybrid electric cars in 3 or so years and a lot of smart people will say "WTF I have an idea that can do that 10% better"."
It is even faster than that. Several of the publications that are geared towards electronic engineers are running the ever popular design contests on doing this exact thing. However, even the brightest idea is going to take years to come to market. And not all ideas are practical to make it into products.
" "Necessity is the mother of invention" (I think it goes)."
The proper phrase is "Necessity is the mother, umm, frakker of invention.". Inventor types are artists. They do what they do because they have to. The money is what you get when the stars align. Sure, like any artist, they dream of the big payoff. But that almost never happens unless they are also a great promoter. Personally, I can't recommend it. Being hag ridden by ideas and concepts can pretty much ruin your life. Assuming, of course, you actually have a life. Which you won't once you are in the grip of a cause. Just read up on how Mr. Goodyear developed vulcanization of rubber. You will understand why it is criminal that his wife was never declared a saint. Joan of Arc was a piker in comparison...
Can the problem(s) be solved? Oh, probably. But it won't be anything you suspect. It will require something along the lines of EEStor. Incremental improvements are the slow road and will take decades.
I think you discount the Volt too much. If GM can pull it off, they have the perfect transitional vehicle. It decouples the traction parts from the energy parts. Fuel cells are the future? No problem, substitute the IC engine, generator, gas tank parts with hydrogen source, fuel cells. Batteries/electricity storage breakthroughs? Substitute the battery. IC engine, generator, gas tank with that. Most of the car stays the same, the only thing that changes is how the electricity is provided. And what percentage of usage. It is a much better solution than anything else that has been proposed. And I am not a huge GM fan. I think their management epitomizes the failures of the American auto industry. Hell, they canceled the Fiero...
And I can never forgive them for that. |
