The Conflict in Georgia: Five Questions We Should Be Asking
John Mark Reynolds
Politics
08.13.2008
Russian desires in Georgia are no riddle.
There is no question that Putin desires to restore Russian hegemony over those parts of the old Russian Empire and the Soviet Union where demographics and geography makes this possible. Georgia is one such place. While Georgia is a friend of the United States and is (on the whole) more free than Russia, it cannot defend itself against a concerted Russian attack. Geographically it is a hard place for America to help.
If Russia wants Georgia, then the bear will get her, but we don’t have to be happy about it.
Our response to Georgia must be more nineteenth century than twentieth.
Russia is trying to revive the “great game” amongst the powers in one the few regions where she can still play it. The clever British and French nineteenth century strategy of condemnation, arming her foes, and coaxing her to better behavior through flattery of elements of the aristocracy that aped British and French manners is a good strategy for us to follow.
John McCain is following this strategy because he understands that the Putin government is rotten and that in the long term rotten governments cannot win.
There must be no disaster like the Crimean War where the wise policy was abandoned and British and French troops died defending the decaying Ottoman Empire from Russia.
Instead, we need agile diplomats, leaders unafraid to bluff and bluster, and an intelligence community not as incompetent as the one with which we are saddled at present.
Nobody is sure what is happening in Georgia today, but there are five questions we should be asking:
1. What is our future relationship with Putin?
Russia is not the Soviet Union in three relevant way. First, it is not as powerful. Second, it presents no global threat to the USA. Third, it is not (at present) as repressive. There is no gulag.
The level of freedom there is greater than under the Soviet system, though there are many danger signs of growing restrictions on liberty.
Putin is a red-shirt thug and a bad man, but will be the leader of Russia (it appears) for the next decade.
On the whole, Russia is a country in demographic decline. Russia, unlike the Soviet Union, presents no expansionist threat to the United States. We need not fear Russia, but Russia must be quarantined as long as she is controlled by the Putin thugocracy.
2. What is the best way to isolate Russia while not provoking her to rash actions?
Kick Russia out of as many international organizations as possible while tying it to bleeding Georgia.
Long term the Russian people will care about their international standing.
External condemnation will strengthen Putin with Russians in the short term (patriotism works in Russia as it does in the USA), but the truth about Georgia will get out. Good economic times do not last forever and when Putin faces international condemnation and a downturn in prosperity (tied as it is to oil and gas), then the fragile nature of his regime will be exposed.
Let’s get the truth out via new media and let Putin deal with growing internal irritation at Russian isolation.
3. Can we arm Georgia without raising expectations we cannot meet?
We are not going to war with Russia over Georgia. How can we help the Georgians keep some level of autonomy without provoking Russia to swallow the entire state?
Georgia will not easy to swallow whole if elements of her population are armed to resist external aggression. Putin cannot afford another internal war.
4. How can we build on the brave statements of both the Russian and Georgian Orthodox churches against the war?
A nationalist tsar-in-waiting like Putin cannot afford to alienate the Orthodox.
We need to encourage further separation between Putin and the patriarch. This will be especially true when the Soviet-era leadership in the Russian church fades away.
Orthodox Christians in America, especially groups like the ROCOR, have a role in presenting alternatives to the short term benefits, but long term disaster, of too much cooperation with the Putin regime by the Orthodox.
5. Who are the next generation of Russian leaders that the West can encourage?
Let’s find the brave people opposed to Putin who are also Russian patriots and help them as we can.
Meanwhile, John McCain has set the right tone to encourage our friends in the region while not promising anything we cannot deliver.
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