<If you want to pursue this line of debate, please define where you
get your projected numbers and be specific as to whether you're
dealing with the combined company or just one.>
Well, by now I take it you have considered my response:
techstocks.com
To this we can add the following (from no less than Gary Seamans, who
arguably now has had a good, hard look at AMTXs numbers):
from news.com
"...Seamans noted that the merger should yield earnings results in
line with analysts' existing forecasts for the companies and should
not fall short..."
Ignoring the cautionary implication in ".. SHOULD not fall short"
(which would be completely expected in implementing the integration of
any two companies), let's simply look at his suggested "analysts'
existing forecasts" for numbers guidance:
From Yahoo's Zacks sites (available for anyone to confirm) for both
companies, we have projection for '98 and '99.
The easy (but ballpark) way to do it is to just to account for the
.9:1 dilution and then average the projections for the given years.
This would yield a WSTL-AMTX loss of <.35> for '98 and a loss of <.19> for '99.
For purists who feel to adjust for the two companies being on
different fiscal calendars (as bill c has pointed out), we can
consider the following (what the heck, I've got a few minutes here):
To attempt a rough synchronization the two, we'll assume (when there
is no breakdown) equal quarters/months for Amati and adjust by the
necessary 4 month offset to apply them to Westell's (the acquirer's)
fiscal calendar.
The following table should be clear and should show that WSTL/AMTX are
not expecting positive yearly earnings (by Seaman's guidance) until
(at LEAST) WSTL's year 2000 fiscal year:
AMTX WSTL
----- -----
Apr - <.03> Apr - <.036>
May - <.11> May - <.036>
Jun - <.11> Jun - <.036>
Jul - <.11> Jul - <.036>
Aug - <.05> Aug - <.036>
Sep - <.05> Sep - <.036>
Oct - <.05> Oct - <.036>
Nov - <.02> Nov - <.036>
Dec - <.02> Dec - <.036>
Jan - <.02> Jan - <.036>
Feb - <.02> Feb - <.036>
Mar - <.02> Mar - <.036>
'98
<.61> (x .9) =
<.55> <.43>
Combined (averaged) for 1998 = <.49>
Apr - <.02> Apr - .0033
May - <.02> May - .0033
Jun - <.02> Jun - .0033
Jul - <.02> Jul - .0033
Aug - <.04> Aug - .0033
Sep - <.04> Sep - .0033
Oct - <.04> Oct - .0033
Nov - <.04> Nov - .0033
Dec - <.04> Dec - .0033
Jan - <.04> Jan - .0033
Feb - <.04> Feb - .0033
Mar - <.04> Mar - .0033
1999
<.40> x .9 =
<.36> .04
Combined (averaged) for 1998 = <.16>
The 1st four months of Westell's yr2000 are projected for
AMTX, but not for WSTL.
Apr - <.04> Apr - not projected
May - <.04> May - "
Jun - <.04> Jun - "
Jul - <.04> Jul - "
Hopefully this clarifies a consideration of the future numbers a
little further, and establishes no positive earnings are expected
until WSTL's fiscal 2000 (at soonest).
Cheers,
Steve |
