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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX)

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To: Wendell Holmes who wrote (4246)	10/18/1997 7:44:00 PM
From: brad greene	of 26039

Big Wendell, J.Saf clarified his somewhat sketchy information.....I told you that IDX never sets a date untill about a week before the release date.....and since J.Saf has been a basket case for at least the last two weeks......He should not be viewed as having valid information...even at this point.......although he may be correct. Why would Jill have told my wife that I could call back anytime next week to get the earnings date, if in fact the earnings are, as J.Saf now says, going to be released next Thursday? Is J. Saf now questioning my wife's credibility? Why would he do that? I would think that J.Saf would have more important things to do.....like passing out cigars. I stand by my guess that earnings will not be out next week......but rather on Tuesday the 28th.......two days before the Annual Meeting on the 30th. I also think that If, in fact, IDX has an announcement to make about the Sylvan Joint Venture.....a press conference perhaps...it would be towards the end of next week...... And.......IDX books sales upon shipment.....So the California Justice order will be in the quarter for sure. What we don't know, is whether the INS order will be. We understand that the PO was in IDX's hands on the Friday before the end of the quarter....and that the plan was to try to get them shipped. If they were, is unknown to us. It would make a several cent difference in earnings....and large orders are always identified in the earnings press release...so we will find out. FYI.....Last year in the first quarter.....Identix earned 1 cent (rounded up from .006) on total sales of $12 million.........product sales of $6.4 million..........$2 million of TP-600 sales to the INS was in the quarter. Sutro's estimates predict first quarter total sales of $19 million...product sales....$ 11 million. Remember that service sales are growing at a rate of 15-20%....While product sales are growing at a much higher rate. I believe that an 80% growth of product sales would be exceptional......and that 100% would be almost better than sex. In order for IDX to hit that 100%......product sales would need to be $ 12.8 million.

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