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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)

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To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (9907)	8/15/2008 4:11:37 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) of 10345

>>Another PML case could pop up to crash it again. There should be little or no question at this point that we will see more PML cases. A very crude look at the data suggests we could be seeing 2 PML cases per month as more of the 30,000 patients move into the over 14 month time frame. With that many, the market will develop some tolerance to new PML cases. How tolerant will depend on how bad the PML cases are. If most of them die it will kill T. If plasma exchange and strong immune systems allow most to recover - then T will be on the market for many years. ij

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