Well, thing is, Intel is cyclical. But like Intel has said, they cycle between flat and big up. Not down. They do everything they can to smooth it, and are amazingly good at it, but its in the nature of their hugely capital intensive business.
the next explosion in Intel value I think will come when people realize Merced is not that far away and is poised to take huge share in the enterprise space, server workstation market. Intel workstations on wall street trading floors running Windows NT. Actually that won't be one of the first applications cause the stuff they got now works pretty fine and in that area they don't give a piss about saving money on equipment relative to any chance on distrupting things.
Next explosion probably happens in later part of 98, my guess.
Yeah, I saw the WSW. It was actually one of their best shows, which I think are generally pablum. Marty Zweig (whose not the one who talked about intel) did a great job of explaining why he saw the drop coming -- not months ahead of time, but one week (a point Louie made). One could see that unlike most such coups, it was not luck, and was repeatable. (He is currently basically bullish, as he says till the spring, which is as far as he can see now, and as far ahead as he can ever see, or tries to see.)
And Lewie Rukie did a great job of pointing out that Marty's real accomplishment was being consistently in the market before that, saying it would be a violent but short correction for combined interest and exchange rate reasons, and then telling his people to GET BACK IN FAST.
About the Intel comment. The baldish early 50ish guy who is on their pannel commented that he thought Intel's Multiple should and probably would increase some 10 to 15 percent, and that intel would tripple over the next three years, his opinion.
I think he's probably more or less right. (But I don't think Intels multiple will go to 35. I think it will go to about 25 and stay there, with increassing forgiveness for periods like the present.) I also think that we are in for one of those periods where intel does nothing for six or nine months. Acutally, as said before, I think we'll see the mid 70s, or certainly could, probably within weeks, then the 80s for long time.
Regards, Doug |
