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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (83218)8/16/2008 7:32:23 PM
From: The Vet  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Mish I see that you have repeated this oft repeated statement but could you please provide a reason?

"Falling oil prices are yet another reason for the dollar to rally given that falling oil prices will help balance of trade."

As oil is almost universally priced and traded in dollars (with very minor exceptions) why should movements in the dollar and the oil prices be related at all? All the trading and most of the costs of producing oil are USD costs so oil doesn't get cheaper to produce simply because the USD gets stronger.

After all the price of a big Mac in NYC doesn't fall when the dollar strengthens because all then inputs for a big Mac are also priced in USD the same currency it is sold in.
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