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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 374.33

+0.7%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: glenn_a who wrote (38901)	8/17/2008 4:28:03 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) of 217860

I am aware that there is very high competition over Central Asia and Caspian Basin natural resources. The new angle in all this is the use of brutal military force by the Russians to overcome the economic inferiority of their proposal. This is not healthy competition of sale of resources to the highest bidders but Mafia type intimidation for dealing with the "CASA NOSTRA" and not the free market. An additional interesting angle is the involvement of Venezuela in the whole puzzle and the limitation of the size of Iranian – Armenia NG pipe line In a strange twist of events it may turn out that Iran as part of the deal to stop their nuclear program will ask for a competing NG pipeline to Europe trough Turkey as their anticipated NG market in China may vanish The new pricing principle lays out that starting from next year, Russia has agreed to pay to Turkmenistan a base gas purchasing price that is a mix of the average wholesale price in Europe and Ukraine. In effect, as compared to the current price of US$140 per thousand cubic meters of Turkmen gas, from 2009 onward Russia will be paying $225-295 under the new formula. This works out to an additional annual payment of something like $9.4 billion to $12.4 billion. But the transition to market principles of pricing will take place within the framework of a long-term contract running up to the year 2028. The second agreement stipulates that Gazprom will finance and build gas transportation facilities and develop gas fields in Turkmenistan. Experts have estimated that Gazprom will finance Turkmen projects costing $4-6 billion. Gazprom chief Alexei Miller said, "We have reached agreement regarding Gazprom financing and building the new main gas pipelines from the east of the country, developing gas fields and boosting the capacity of the Turkmen sector of the Caspian gas pipeline to 30 billion cubic meters." Interestingly, Gazprom will provide financing in the form of 0% credits for these local projects. The net gain for Turkmenistan is estimated to be in the region of $240-480 million. ........................................... Coincidence or not, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin traveled to Beijing at the weekend to launch with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier Wang Oishan, an energy initiative - a so-called "energy negotiation mechanism". The first round of negotiations within this framework took place on Saturday in Beijing. There has been an inexplicable media blackout of the event, but Beijing finally decided to break the news.

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