Bob, I think I'm more inclined to concur with your opinion on this, especially with regard to European banks and their Real Estate issues.
And I definitely have to disagree with ajtj over Georgia. That was a trap the Russians sprang via continuous provocations. The Georgians were foolish to fall for it, but they did, and the Russians have effectively annexed Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now many full independence might be in the offing for Abkhazia, but neither North or South Ossetia have the economic base to go it alone. But that should be our game plan.. Force the Russians to implement what they allegedly been supporting all along.. independence for these two territories.
Georgia will need to be convinced they've lost those territories, but they still can get some "payback" by encouraging the same separatist activities against the Russians. Two separate "buffer zones" against the Russians is better than having the bear pawing at your door.
The reality is that Russia wants to control not only Georgia, but Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the 'Stans from which all that oil transits that pipeline in Georgia to Turkey. One only has to peruse the map to understand this:
google.com
maps.google.com
I personally believe the local Russian leadership in the Caucasus created this situation and then waited for Putin to be out of the country to push the issue. Putin, although having thorough distaste for the Georgians, probably didn't want something like this to transpire during the Olympics, but his people left him little choice. Especially when he knew he would be meeting face to face with Bush. But once the action was started, he certainly couldn't be seen internally as caving in.
But that's just my gut sense over this. It leaves to question who's actually wielding power within Russia. This may have been a play by their military leaders to undermine Putin's position. We'll see in coming months if some of these Generals pay the price.
Sorry if I've polluted this thread with the Georgian issue. Probably not the place for this discussion. But it certainly does impact the future price of oil.
Hawk |
