[Point Counter-point]
<<<That's one approach (let's call it the "Lennon Approach"), ignore the analysts AND the CEO.>>
I've spent my life questioning what's said and written. To accept either Zacks' numbers or Seamans' offhand comment when I know the facts would be irresponsible. And I submit that your taking Zacks' numbers at face value when you know they're incorrect is also irresponsible. Why don't you call each of the analysts and ask for updated figures?
Soundview, Kevin Slocum --- 203-462-7219
Alex Brown --- Christopher J. Crespi 415-477-4278 or Chelsea E. Hardesty 415-477-3334
Dain Bosworth --- Charles Pluckhahn 206-621-3012
Nationsbanc Montgomery --- Al Tolba, 212-583-8016 or Dave Raezer, 212-583-8041
Cowen --- J. Kedersha or B. Carroll, 617-946-3700
Dakin Securities --- Joel Achramowicz, 415-981-2114
Also call Gary Seamans or Westell's IR department and get clarification on his comment regarding analyst numbers.
Once you've done this you can talk to be about responsibility or, as you put it, "Whatever gets your through the night."
<<<But even using YOUR very optimistic deployment numbers and a very optimistic growth rate of 50%, we arrive at (by trailing PEG) a WSTL-AMTX fair market value of $19.5 - which translates into converted AMTX shares to a fair value of $17.5 (at the END of *1998*).>>>
Correction: my numbers are not optimistic. They're conservative to a fault. If I wanted to inflate them, I'd use the 500K line figure given by one of GTE's deployment directors.
The JP Morgan Networking report gives the xDSL sector a three-year compounded growth rate of 121%. NEC/America estimates xDSL homes covered will go from 270K to 1.767M in three years. GTE estimates 2M ADSL homes by 2000. I couldn't find my copy of DataQuest, but I believe they put the 5-year CAGR of xDSL at 166%. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Based on these numbers, I consider my 50% figure quite conservative.
I look forward to your report from the ananlysts and from Westell regarding Gary Seaman's comment.
Regards,
Pat
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