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Gold/Mining/Energy : Suntech Power Holdings Co.

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From: bob zagorin	8/21/2008 10:01:45 AM
	of 82

China poly start-ups and global supply and demand according to STP • STP’s CEO Dr. Shi believes global demand will remain strong in 2009 at 6-8GW (vs his estimate of over 4GW demand in 2008), which will be lower than our US solar analyst’s estimate of around 9GW global demand in 2009. Dr. Shi also expects thin film global supply at around 1GW in 2009 and PV module supply to match demand growth but no industry oversupply in 2009. • STP has secured 900MW raw materials for 2009, about 30% of which to come from new poly start-ups that STP has taken minority stakes in to raise its market share, subject to successful on-time and on-budget ramp-up of these new start-ups. • STP needs to differentiate via its "Pluto" technology to help cut non-Si costs by 5% pa. Polysilicon supply ramp up would help lower overall production cost and Dr. Shi expects grid parity for solar in next 3 to 5 years. With substantial Si contracts, STP faces low cost poly production and PV thin film tech challenges. • Without tech differentiation, ASP decline to be caused by increase Si supply/competition could offset revenue and profit projections for individual companies. We prefer SOL and JASO. (CS)

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