Since 01 January 2005, the price of oil has risen from 45.00 to the current 115.00. How would you characterize the supply response of global crude oil in that time-frame (3.5 years)? Also, if you are forecasting supply growth of global crude oil, do you have a time frame and price needed to create supply growth, of global crude oil?
G
PS: My comments on North American NG are fairly well known, at this point on the thread. It's true: once price got high enough to bring on shale NG, it came on. Thing is, these plays, while significant, are unfolding in a particular North American context of declines in N.A. NG, and, in a context of higher costs. Lots of new NG will be available at 10.00, imo. But one has to look at this in the context of higher oil. Right now, the market thinks all this new shale NG supply can come on as easily as previous supply. As I have said, the analytical tension/divergence is really high. It mirrors tensions in global oil, where people think price can fall to 70.00, but where the evidence mounts that the new marginal cost of supply is at minimum 80. I use 90.00 and there are people above me at 100. |
