No idea on exact numbers, just pointing out the example of history. These cycles have been repeated over and over for hundreds, if not thousands of years. It was just repeated with NA NG. The usual suspects were calling for production to "hit a brick wall", "fall off a cliff", and so on, and yet, just the opposite happened.
In terms of investing, even if you have the marginal cost of an extra barrel figured to $100.00, the market could care less.
Best hope for the bulls short term is some sort of major supply disruption, something more than closing of a major pipeline, for example. Medium term, prices are still supported by major subsidies in asia. Long term, oil loses to cleaner, cheaper energy.
US in 2008, like Japan in 1999, and Europe in 2006, has just gone through peak oil demand. |
