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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (31833)8/26/2008 12:48:54 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (2) of 78751
 
AIB -the problem with AIB and IRE is that the Irish boom was partly build on the RE boom which is now faltering. In fact in some respects Irish RE problems are worse than the US since the whole economy has been driven much more by RE than was the US.

I think the same is true for GB and Spain. Banks in those countries might (and in some cases are already) seeing problems similar to US banks. Germany never had a RE boom and in many areas (Berlin) prices have been depressed since the early 90's. There is very little risk that German banks have problems because of domestic RE borrowings , which of course does not mean that they manage to avoid losses on foreign loans.

Bottom line is i would be very careful with Irish, British and Spanish banks. We might see a few bank wipeouts in those countries.
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