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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 49.25

+0.9%

Feb 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: KENNETH R SANDERS who wrote (3059)	8/29/1996 8:30:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick	of 186894

Last fall I started a thread entitled "Is Intel a $100 stock in 1996". I don't know about 1996 but I do forcast being well over $100 in 1997. Here's how. Year Profit PE Price 1996 $4.50 20 $90 1997 $5.25 20 $110 1998 $6.00 25 $150 I am predicting a highter profit and a higher multiple. My numbers are pretty near consensus. I am counting on a growing multiple if Intel strings up a series of growing quarterly earnings so that it again becomes regarded as a growth stock with the potential to continue to grow earnings at a rate approaching or exceeding 20%. Intel is also a stock that historically has shown a high beta. That means that it is more volatile than the market. Lately that has been tamped down, but the stock tends to have exagerated moves in both directions. Therefore I suspect that the prices I predicted above will be reached early in each year barring some overall market collapse or crisis. (I suspect that if Whitewater blows up in Clinton's face the market will be scared witless. You heard it here first.) In summary you have a high beta stock with excellent growth prospects, great management, superb manufacturing and a virtual monopoly on the most significant product of the last 50 years. There will certainly be bumps in the charts, but the uptrend should continue until something fundamental changes. Right now I believe that I will be needing a new PC at home every three years, due to obsolescence. Just look at the size of the installed base, the size of the untapped overseas market and the needs of business and the military. Wow. I would not be inclined to bet against this juggernaut until I saw clear signs of a stumble. Good investing to all. Burt

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