Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase (Update1)
By Craig Torres
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers agreed this month that their next change in interest rates will be to raise them, while reaching no conclusion on the timing of such a decision.
``A number of participants worried about the possibility that core inflation might fail to moderate next year unless the stance of monetary policy was tightened sooner than currently anticipated by financial markets,'' according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today. At the same time, officials agreed that the timing of any move will depend on economic and financial developments.
The minutes show a debate over the magnitude of the inflation threat, with two groups of officials making different judgments on the impact of the recent slide in commodity prices. Policy makers also diverged on whether financial turmoil continues to pose the risk of a more severe credit crunch.
The Fed left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent for the second straight meeting on Aug. 5. At the time, traders estimated a 31 percent chance of at least a quarter- point increase by the end of the year, futures prices show. Now, that probability is 22 percent.
``There is a big split on the FOMC, no doubt about that,'' said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor and senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. ``We know there is a severe credit crunch, but it is difficult outside the housing market to pin down how much impact it is having on the economy.''
Plosser Dissent
Today's release also showed that Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser opposed creating a new program offering investment banks options on borrowing Treasuries from the central bank.
``Many participants noted that the financial system remained fragile, with some expressing continued concern about the possibility of an adverse feedback loop'' where tighter credit conditions push the housing market even lower, the minutes said. ``Several other participants suggested that the risks to the financial system had receded.''
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the Fed ``is committed to achieving medium-term price stability and will act as necessary to obtain that objective'' in his remarks opening the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, monetary conference on Aug. 29.
`Tightening' Expected
``Although members generally anticipated that the next policy move would likely be a tightening, the timing and extent of any change in policy stance would depend on evolving economic and financial developments,'' the minutes said.
With the economy faltering, U.S. central bankers are trying to reconcile both aspects of their dual mandate to limit inflation while sustaining economic growth that maximizes employment.
Some 463,000 Americans have lost jobs since January as the worst housing recession in a quarter century has curtailed spending and bank lending. Economists expect annualized rates of growth of just 1.2 percent in the third quarter and 0.45 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg Survey.
The consumer price index rose 5.6 percent for the 12 months ending in July. The Fed's preferred benchmark, the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, has been at 2 percent or higher since March 2004. Adjusted for the core PCE rate, the real federal funds rate is slightly below zero, the lowest since November 2004.
Mortgage Turmoil
The U.S. Treasury now has authority to provide any necessary financial support for the firms, making access to Fed loans less urgent. Still, shares of the mortgage finance companies are lower as investors conclude that government involvement would come at a cost to equity investors.
Shares of Washington-based Fannie Mae have fallen 48 percent during the last month, while McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac has declined 51 percent.
``Heightened investor apprehension about the viability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had eased following legislative action, but pressures on these firms continued,'' the minutes said.
Housing markets remain weak. Some 4.67 million houses and condos were on sale in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The 11.2 months supply, measured by the current sales pace, matches a prior record.
Unsold Properties
A five- to six-month supply usually marks a stable market, according to the association. The glut of unsold homes pushed the median sales price down 7.1 percent last month compared with July 2007.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher dissented at the August meeting, preferring an increase in rates.
Fisher ``dissented because he favored an increase in the target federal funds rate to help restrain inflation,'' the minutes said.
Futures markets show a 92 percent probability of no change in interest rates when the FOMC next meets Sept. 16., and an 83 percent chance of no change at the October 28-29 meeting.
To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 26, 2008 14:29 EDT |
