Nah, the company said nothing about the stock price, but then again, I did not ask. I've found that whenever you ask any company that question, invariably you get back a standard answer like "There is no reason of which we are aware." Sometimes they speculate, but it is normally not any better speculation than the rest of us make. As for my outlook on earnings, it is tough to say. I get annoyed at the investors in this company that cannot read. Earnings in the first quarter were down from the fourth quarter, BUT THE FOURTH QUARTER HAD AN 8 CENT TAX POP! In reality, operating earnings were at a record level in the first quarter, but nobody seemed to notice, and they trashed the stock. Revenues were apparently not at the level that the public expected in the first quarter, but within two weeks of the end of the quarter, well before first quarter numbers were released, the company announced the $4.3 million DISA contract. Had that sale simply happened two weeks earlier, the investors in this stock would have gone bonkers. What, I ask, is the damn difference?? It is still sales that the public should have known about, and factored into their decision criteria set included with the Q1 earnings release. This company isn't selling cupcakes, so a big sale moving across a calendar quarter, while not a big deal to people who understand, scares the crap out of investors who do not pay attention to the press releases. People should pay attention to the press releases, all press releases, and not just the earnings announcement. Earnings ARE the past, and we are told that we should not live in the past. Landing big contracts, establishing strategic alliances with major players, buying successful lines of business from other companies, etc., represents the future. I am amazed how many of my friends are so focused on every one of this (and every) company's earnings announcements. I beat and beat on them to get in the stock when it was around $5 about a year ago in August/September, because I liked where the company was going. Many got in ONLY after the earnings announcement last Halloween, and by then the stock was up about 25%.
Anyway, I have no idea what the earnings will be. The company has been exhibiting a pattern of blowing out the comparable quarter from the previous year, for some time now. That does not mean they will beat last quarter's numbers, which had a chunk of the DISA sale in it. (I wonder how many people saw the two contract announcements totaling $4.4 million in early October, obviously not part of Q3?) Plus, their sales force is probably up to speed completely by now, so that also bodes well. We'll see. Personally, the only reason I care about this earnings report is because I know enough other people who don't really follow the company's developments will be waiting nervously for the numbers to be released, and therefore I must ride the roller coaster they create. Me, I'd rather read about a big strategic alliance, or about a big sale with revenues coming in a couple of quarters down the road. But then, what do I know? (Sorry for being so long winded.) |
