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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 383.12

+0.8%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (39297)	8/27/2008 2:32:30 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) of 218055

hi haim, your information on solar is not the most up to date - commercial solar @ current tech is already at grid parity in the most expensive locales (hawaii, where 75% electricity is generated from oil)), and would be profitable to manufacturers and installers - the best commercial poly-si based solar pv cell is at 13-18% efficiency - the best poly-si lab cell is at 40+% eff (lense focused solar pv) - the mostest inverter is at 50% eff - the best inverter is at 95% eff - dc appliances are also happening, at least in china for rural application - thin film (6-10% eff cell and rising) application for building integrated use has started and will soon ramp (less onerous cost given dual use of system (windows/roofs & power generation) - poly-si solar pv cost of production coming down at 5-8% per annum - solar grade (as opposed to semi-con grade) poly-si purification will crater in price within 36 months (ramped from $25/kg to 200+/kg spot over past 36 months due to demand - etc etc etc - given all of above, more footage on earth will come within band of grid parity over 36 months (more than the market can now serve) - the issue, globally, is less the tech path then the financing way - who will finance the one big lump of upfront needed to secure on-going and free solar pv (as opposed to csp, solar thermal solutions) benefit - in the mean time, off-grid solar is silently booming - we are still early days, but sure days for sure, starting now

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