Some thoughts on the weakness in the markets and the semi's in particular:
We've seen a steady rate of selling in the semi's, for a very long time. I speculate that with the troubles for many large banks and other institutions, we've been watching a steady flow of money out of many long term equity positions. Add in the obvious nervousness of the ordinary retail investor and we're seeing even more people closing out semi positions. This time of year there is low volume, so many volatile stocks show even more movement. With this in mind, we are likely seeing the selling become magnified. We've also seen short positions in the markets rising to record or near record levels. The trend is your friend and the trend in semis has been down (for so long...we don't which way is up...vbg).
The path of least resistance is down...until its not. Unless you are trading support/resistance levels and buying the occasional panic selling situation, its probably best to stay on the sidelines and wait for additional washout plays.
The current fundamentals on many stocks in this sector are looking pretty lousy. If you are a LTBH type of investor, I see little reason to buy in a big way but would suggest nibbling on the companies you want to hold for a few years. No need to back up the truck until there's a lot more blood in the streets.
JMO...FWIW
TO
TAIPEI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - South Korea's Samsung Electronics (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) retained its spot as the world's top DRAM maker in the second quarter of the year, with a share of more than 30 percent in the market, research firm iSuppli said.
Samsung controlled 30.3 percent of the global DRAM market in terms of revenue as its second-quarter revenue jumped 13 percent from the first quarter, while Hynix (000660.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) took the No. 2 position, winning 19.5 percent in the same quarter, iSuppli said in a statement late on Friday.
Japan's Elpida Memory (6665.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) came in third with 15.4 percent, U.S. Micron Technology Inc (MU.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was No.4 with 10.9 percent and Qimonda (QI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was No.5 with 8.9 percent, iSuppli said, without giving comparisons.
Qimonda, which captured 16 percent market share just two years ago, has now lost 7 percent of that growth as other DRAM suppliers have forged ahead, iSuppli said.
Among the top 5 DRAM sellers, Qimonda was the only one to see quarter on quarter revenue decline in the second quarter, iSuppli said, amid a sector downturn that has seen prices drop sharply.
iSuppli reiterated that prices of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips used mainly for PCs were likely to fall in the third quarter due to bloated inventories. (Reporting by Baker Li; Editing by Clarence Fernandez) |
