<Correction: my numbers are not optimistic. They're conservative to a
fault.>
Well Pat, lets consider this interaction as representative of the kinds of exchanges here which are not according to your Amatian "party line".
First you declare the analysts' published numbers as being incorrect.
Then you explain away the CEO of WSTL's comments supporting the analysts' published numbers as just playing it safe (not bad advise for an investor in high risk stocks, BTW).
Then you throw out some of your OWN deployment numbers which would result in FAR more optimistic 1998 earnings numbers than ANY analyst yet has projected (for 1998).
Then, after YOUR deployment numbers are worked through, and it is seen that even with THESE numbers, Amati may be trading significantly ahead of itself, you question the accuracy of the calculations - TWICE (with further clarifications following each question).
Then, after several attempts, once you finally (presumably) see how YOUR numbers work out, rather than simply ACKNOWLEDGE or even DISCUSS this, you retreat to a "my numbers were conservative to a fault" response.
This is yet another example of your tremendous (and publically self-acknowledged) bias here, and the disingenuous and blatant spin control typical of this thread.
It's like this isn't even an investment forum where all points are considered. It's more a public commercial and rooting section, that is imagined as some battleground for the stock price.
Of course, this is silly considering how many people seemed to have gotten burned in playing options in the Amati takeover at higher prices rumor (you DID hear that Amati was likely - to definitely - going to be taken over a week or weeks before it was, and passed that along to others, didn't you?)
You (and many of the posters here) are like (as someone put it) "soccer moms"... blind to any objective consideration of the negatives in "your" company.
Remember when we spoke last January, and you explained to me why it was you refered to Amati as "we"? Catching yourself doing so, you said (without my asking you) "..it's because I own so much, I practically own the company..." Finding out later that you owned something like 100K on margin at $8 (versus SO of 18MM), I sensed the dynamics at work here..."identification".
As far as MY calling the analysts, their numbers are in print, and have been for a good while. If there was a need to change them, they easily could have.
And since *I'm* not the one calling the analysts and Seamans wrong (or misunderstood), the challenge to get clarification, IMO, rests with you. Why don't you call them and report back exactly how they acknowledge their numbers are wrong and what those nmbers SHOULD be (presumably closer to YOUR figures), if you are so sure that MY calling them would yield this type of response?
If it wasn't for the occasional email I get supporting my efforts to bring some balance here, and my enjoyment of digging into understand this technology and the market for it, I wouldn't spend as much time here pointing out the inaccuracies and questionable assumptions found here. I also wouldn't put such efforts here if the posters themselves offered some constraint and critical thinking.
I do have to say I am continually amazed that more of this thread's readers don't feel this way and post publically to that effect, but what the hey, c'est marche.
And remember, the "xDSL" projection figures which you quote *include* the still rapidly growing (and profitable) HDSL technology.
And my point has NEVER been that ADSL and bandwidth technologies won't necessarily take off, but to QUESTION how QUICKLY they would, and in what FORMS.
That VERY FEW others on this thread publically question (let alone dispute) the deployment time frames that you have put forth (even though others, like Bill Gates and GTE's Barry Nolls, have done so recently in PRINT) should be a concern among those who want to make money investing (vs. those who primarily want to "be right" about "their company").
Will analysts eventually revise their numbers at some point? Could well be. But the way this is considered in this thread is anything but "conservative".
Good luck all-
Steve |
