"Gustav isn't forecasted to be in the same league as Katrina."
Keep a close eye on Hanna. It is following a path much more like that of Katrina.
Kayaker, I remember watching the progress of Katrina very closely. I also remember the forecasts for Katrina not being particularly threatening just 72 hours ahead of actual landfall near NO, so I decided to look back.
The "forecasts" may surprise you.
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Wed Aug 24, 2005 (New Orleans minus 5 days)
nhc.noaa.gov
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB.
11am Thurs Aug 25, 2005 (New Orleans minus 4 days)
nhc.noaa.gov
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... WAS 985 MB.
11pm Thurs Aug 25, 2005
nhc.noaa.gov
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB.
As late as 11pm Thursday Aug 25, the forecast had the entire state of Louisiana completely outside the probability cone.
That's just 3 1/2 days ahead of when it actually hit there!
katrina.noaa.gov
11am Fri Aug 26, 2005 (New Orleans minus 3 days)
nhc.noaa.gov
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.
10am Sat Aug 27, 2005
nhc.noaa.gov
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ... WAS 940 MB.
7am Sunday Aug 28, 2005
nhc.noaa.gov
...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB.
4pm Sunday Aug 28, 2005
nhc.noaa.gov
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902 MB.
10pm Sunday Aug 28, 2005 (Katrina is on top of many oil rigs at this time)
nhc.noaa.gov
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB
Just 12 hours after the above forecast, at 10am Monday Aug 29, Katrina came ashore, centered at the mouth of the Pearl River, 35 miles East of New Orleans, as a Category 3 hurricane.
The rest is history.
From the forecasts above, you can see that just 3 1/2 days prior to landfall at New Orleans, the NHC had all of Louisiana completely outside the projected wind probability cone.
They consistently underestimated the strengthening of this storm as it churned at low forward speed in the Gulf.
They then substantially overestimated Katrina's strength as it was to make landfall.
I don't mean to belittle the job that the NHC forecasters do.
Both direction and intensity are difficult things to predict.
I am simply addressing your comment on the "forecast" for Gustav before it has even reached the Gulf!
That said, I also don't expect Gustav to be nearly as devastating as Katrina, since its path will be a much straighter line and at much higher forward speed than Katrina, allowing it a lot less time over the hot Gulf waters to intensify.
Anyway, interesting stuff.
Cheers,
S&P
PS: Keep an eye on Hanna. "Hurricane Hanna" has an ominous sound to it, don't you think?
nhc.noaa.gov
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