on first contact with readings, specialized reports, gurus, visionaries, technologists, and industry players, the concensus appears to be that both c-si and thin film cells will win, win big, applied differently, matching needs with wants and ability to pay
easy first cut appears to be:
c-si cells
- 25 years durable life
- 13-18% efficiency (smaller area for per watt)
- no efficiency degradation over time
- tried and true manufacturing
- cost 3 going to 1
thin film of various sorts:
- 10 years durable life
- 6-10% efficiency
- performance degradation over time
- easy but more toxic manufacturing, but require more care over life time, best integrated into building parts (glass) and for institutions (who can care for the systems), have disposal issue
- cost 1.5 going to below 1
etc etc
then there are the thousands of down stream parts makers
and tens of dozens of upstream enablers
the efficiency issues are being worked on, with many obvious solution paths, all bullish for planet earth, but possibly deadly for any particular company if trapped in dead-end technology
early days yet, perhaps
- vhs/beta before blockbuster days
- internet 1995
- housing 2001
etc etc
think whatever we think, we best be doing some thinking, or be left behind
also must pay attention to downstream stuff such as inverters and such that ought to win as an aggregate group which ever solar cell wins |
