Two new polls of note out today… CBS/New York Times has Obama with a slight bounce, up 48%-40%. An earlier poll, showed Obama up 45%-42%. CNN/Opinion Research, however, has Obama up just one point, 49%-48%
Both surveys were conducted Aug. 29-31. Obama's convention speech was made on Thursday, Aug. 28th; Palin was picked the next morning, Friday, Aug. 29th.
The five-point post-convention jump is the biggest for a Democrat in the CBS poll since 1996 when Bill Clinton also saw a 5-point increase. It shows a big swing in independents. McCain had led with the group in the last poll by 12 percentage points, but now Obama leads with them by 7.
It also finds Obama beats McCain, 63%-41%, on who most “understands the needs and problems of people like you.” And Obama got a boost on toughness after the convention. On, “Is he tough enough?” just 48% said he was in early August, but now 58% say so. Though Obama saw an increase in the commander-in-chief question, McCain still beats him by plenty -- 45%-29% say McCain is very likely to be an effective commander in chief. 19% say McCain's not likely to be effective; 34% say the same of Obama.
Men seemed most affected by McCain's selection of Palin as VP -- 17% of men said they'd be more likely to vote for McCain now versus just 10% of women. Michelle Obama apparently helped herself last week. In this poll, her favorables went from 28% fav/18% unfav/53% undecided in early August to 41% fav/21% unfav/38% undecided.
The CNN poll, with one of the lowest undecided numbers of any poll out there, showed the candidates tied a week earlier, 47%-47%.
With regard to McCain's pick of Palin, men viewed her more favorably than women did -- 41% of men had a favorable opinion; just 36% of women felt the same. Just 45% thought she was ready to president; 52% said she wasn't. Those are the lowest confidence numbers for a VP since Dan Quayle.
And, interestingly, “Three quarters of all voters think McCain chose a female running mate specifically because he thought adding a woman to the Republican ticket would help him win in November.” |
