One aspect missing from even the best analysis around the internets is that this woman has nothing to lose. She's got nothing to be afraid of, and everything to gain. I think the picking here was a good tactical decision by McCain but come election day will be a deal-breaker. I also think that, although the election is Obama's to lose, that the McCain campaign probably priced in too much of a lead, for Obama. They seem to have become very unaware of Obama fatigue. Ironically, a safer VP pick might have inched McCain across the finish line 10 weeks from now. Of course, a safer pick would never have attracted the current level of attention.
Bottom line: I think it was a huge mistake on McCain's part. It was a trade. Short-term spike for greater uncertainty 10 weeks from now. Also, I think whatever base he rallies from the ultra-conservatives, he loses in independents.
That said, I wager she storms up to that podium with a very good speech probably written by good writers. They probably insert stuff like "This lady of Alaska is lot tougher than you think" sort of stuff. I bet the crowd goes wild, and millions tune in.
On Election day, however, many serious voters who might have considered McCain will be unable to pull the lever for him. I've been a soft Obama supporter for over 18 months, and was behind him most strongly when he was knocking Clinton out of the race. Had McCain made a serious pick for VP, I would have remained open to voting for him. Even though I don't think the GOP deserves the White House. (there is other math to consider--like one-party control which I don't think is good). However, I won't even consider McCain now.
BTW, I think favorably of Palin, even though I don't agree with her on any issues. She has a strong verbal presentation. I wish her the best. However, picking her was desperate and foolish, and a major ding to my view of McCain.
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