Novell is Dead. Apple is Dead. Long Live Microsoft! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell is Dead. Apple is Dead. Long Live Microsoft!

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To: Henry J. Sprafkin who wrote (137)	8/29/1996 11:10:00 AM
From: Shibumi	of 238

Re: Novell Winning At TI. Could you (or anyone) give a few more details as to why Microsoft lost this account at TI? Any news releases or just gut-level insight into the specifics? If so, it would really be fascinating. It's interesting that you note that "Novell provides network infrastructure". If I take that literally, then Novell really competes against Cisco more than they do Microsoft. Even taking it as I believe you meant it, I think that you've pinpointed where Novell's weakness is. Given the increasing power of the microprocessor, and thus the increasing power of the entry-level server, Novell's ability to only do file services (note: I include in this term print and all that other stuff) is a tremendous weakness. Don't get me wrong -- I believe that if you want a dedicated (i.e., embedded) file server that NetWare is the best answer in the industry -- the problem appears to me to be that this market is eroding while the application server market (where NT is targeted) is growing so fast. And this is the fundamental reason for the market share shifts in the unsegmented server space that you see. Can Novell define a niche (whether it be the Forrester "intranet service model or something else) in which they can be successful? I don't know. The best thing that they could do would be to embed netware into network infrastructure equipment -- but even that seems to be a short-term fix. For as NDS and other components are brought over to NT, it sure seems like Novell will get hammered from the top (NT application server moving downward) and from the bottom (switch, router, hub, etc. functionality moving upward). All in all, it sure doesn't seem to me that Novell is something I'd like to place a bet on. But then again, if the specifics of the TI case are compelling enough so that they could overcome the macrocosmic stuff noted above, I could change my mind. Mark

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