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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 201.07

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Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tumbleweed who wrote (3433)	10/19/1997 11:55:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	of 19080

Don't forget, in this environment, the pond is growing as well! Agreed. This is an added complication that weakens the effect, but doesn't eliminate it. The pond does not grow at 0% (i.e. it is growing) but by the same token its growth rate is much lower than 40%, so a company growing at that rate is getting bigger relative to the pond. Since old markets go into decline and new ones (e.g the NC) develop, the "real world" application of this simple concept is very complicated. I don't want to sound negative; I just think it's good to think about risk as well as return. In the past few years, US corporate earnings have grown a lot faster than GDP. A lot of novice investors think this will keep happening indefinitely. But it can't, for the same reason. My inclination is to think "when will the inevitable happen?" instead of "Let's hope it never happens". I think this pays off in the long run. Oracle is a wonderful company, and all i'm saying is that future returns are likely to decline somewhat from the amazingly good returns achieved over the past decade.

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