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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (8862)	9/3/2008 4:10:04 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 15987

Ukraine is a much tougher nut to crack than Georgia. Its military is larger and more capable, its population is about 10 times as large, its physically larger, and also closer to Western Europe, and it has more "mindshare" in the US and Western Europe. Also while it does sections with ethnic Russian majorities, it doesn't have areas outside the central government's control, with a preexisting base of Russian "peace keepers", as well as local anti-government militias to keep the central government from exercising control. So I agree with the unnamed experts mentioned in the article. War is unlikely. If it does happen, it will be far costlier to Russia, on many levels and for many reasons, than the conflict with Georgia was.

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