Just an observation, but your two thoughts are completely contradictory. If the "Sunni Awakening" is responsible for the drastic decrease in violence, then we shouldnt see it erupt after US troops leave.
Would that you were right, Slacker. But here's one version of China's argument. Not certain whether it was what he had in mind.
One part of the "awakening" so called, was the US paying and arming Sunni tribal groups to both defend against Al Q and attack them. As a completely predictable side effect, the Sunnis used the same arms and money to protect themselves against Shia.
At the same time, rather than try to integrate the Sunnis into the military, the Maliki government, for obvious reasons, has been more than loath to do so. One can expect to see them try to keep their control of the central government and the associated revenues and control of much of the country (a big variable, in my mind).
Thus, one of the ironies is that the US is arming and training both sides in a future civil war (god knows where the Kurds will fit into this).
And this scenario doesn't include the strong possibility of Shia against Shia violence as Maliki's coalition comes into conflict with other Shia groups, not least of which is the Sadr group.
Unfortunately, I don't see any way out of this future. |
