John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (9896)	9/6/2008 12:58:47 AM
From: Jon Koplik	4 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 33421

Bill Gross is an idiot (or, writes while "on drugs") (or, is just talking nonsense that might help some of his investments not "go to zero.") Why is it that when something goes up in price absolutely ABSURDLY (real estate last 5 years, commodities last 2 or 3 years, oil last 1 year or so), that people act as if : we MUST maintain these new price levels ??? Robert Shiller's work on real estate indicates that (adjusted for inflation) (and ... the same size and quality house) ... real estate is STILL hugely over-priced right now. (Common sense also indicates the same thing, I think ...) Commodities -- anyone who has ever looked into long-term trends comes up with the conclusion : commodities should converge to their marginal cost of production, which itself should decline as technological change benefits commodity producers. A lot of commodities are cheaper right now than they were in the early 1970s. Those that are not ... I would predict : just wait, they will crash, too. Should someone have tried to maintain silver at $40 - $50 per ounce since early 1980 ??? Of course not. The price was stupid and wrong. Jon.

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