Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 172.23

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To: Paul V. who wrote (2799)	10/20/1997 9:58:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	of 10921

Paul, RE: WAFER TRANSITIONS Wish I knew this industry better to answer your questions. Here's an excerpt from a 9/15/97 issue of Wall Street Transcript discussing wafer transitions: Jerry Fleming (Reaearch Director, Semiconductor Equipment Analyst, Sutro & Co.): ...The transition from 5-inch to 6-inch wafers had a chasmpion in Intel. IBM championed the industry's transition from 6-inch to 8-inch wafer. I think, if you talk to the technological people in both companies, neither of them would ever be first again, It was an expensive process. Each of them had deep pockets. Today we need a corporation to take this industry to 12-inch wafers. There are about 20 companies that are willing to be the second one, but nobody seems willing to be first. It took three years for them to convert from 5 to 6-inch wafers. It took five years to get from 6 to 8-inches, and if you believe in Fibonacci numbers, it probably will take eight years to get from 8 to 12-inch wafers. It is going to be a real struggle to not only overcome the technological obstacles, but also the productivity and cost issues. So again, we believe it's going to be a long haul to 12-inch wafers at 0.18 micron. TWST: Who might be that champion that will come forward? Fleming: Well, at one time it looked like it was going to be Motorola. Some of the Koreans have been out there in the front, talking about it. The Japanese are certainly interested to try to regain the leadership position in the industry. I am not sure I that I know who is going to be first. [See www.twst.com for list of libraries that subscribe to this rather expensive publication] SC

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