re:[So go on record. What are you doing?"]
Is this where for the 317th time, I get to go back and cut & paste
everything I've posted over the last few months?
Try reading...
Message 24849391
Message 24720567
Message 24720459
sliderontheblack.com
I could not have possibly been more clear.
I've been pounding the table on how profitable these
"trading ranges" have been in gold stocks, and how
defined they have been.... along with the absolute
necessity of trading in both directions -long and short.
And I warned the permabulls that the "throw a dart"
period this cycle was now over, because the fundamentals
had changed (a fact that evidently escaped the grasp of many)
and said that those who believed that gold would flourish, let alone serve
as insurance in a deflationary contraction/correction --
"were about to give it all back."
And pleaded with them not to let what just happened -- happen...ie:
"Don't Let Buy & Hold turn into Buy & Fold"
For over 15 months I pounded the table on "The Chart I"
after the May 2006 collapse.
Told them when, how, and why the August 2007 collapse
would occur re: the collapse of the "yen carry trade."
Pleaded with 'bugs to "buck up" and "back up" the truck
on that Yen carry correction last August and again last
December.
Set price targets at $1,000 gold, HUI 520, and a low
for the US Dollar at 72 off the December trade.
... and we basically hit all three targets in March.
I then rolled back into the trading range with "Chart II."
Started adding puts, and shorts at the HUI 470 top of
the range here...
Message 24720567
Still letting those shorts run here...
9/2/2008 7:30:51 AM
Message 24900195
["I'm still short half of our original position on the HUI
470 trading range turn. And I am buying weakness very
selectively -- "as a hedge to that short" - and buying
time via 2009 calls & 2010 LEAPS."]
So what am I doing here - today, right now?
I'm looking at financials on the Crème de la Crème of the
juniors and explorers, especially those with funding in place,
and who are now selling as "options" without expiration dates,
at literally pennies on the dollar.
I covered some shorts at HUI 320, at 300, and again yesterday.
I took 1/2 of the profits from those shorts and bought some calls and
leap calls on GG and FCX, a little PAL & SWC and am looking at an initial
entry into Palladium, possibly considering a possible paired trade short
Platinum/Long Palladium due to the extremes of the ratio spreads.
And I'm still letting the remaining profits on those shorts and puts from
HUI 470 run... until the market takes me out.
I've now brought my trailing stops down to HUI 280-300.
1/2 of all short profits get banked, and 1/2 are a self-funding hedge
against my remaining shorts, and build me re-entry long position --
on a "house money" profits only basis.
Not being a smart ass... but, "that" is how you buy and fund insurance.
My "insurance" made me money on the way down and has completely
funded my "insurance" for future upside as well.
No core capital exposed...and I will only redeploy core capital
on a reversal of the fundamentals, or on technical strength.
Hey... now there's another forgotten concept -- buying on strength,
vs. chasing weakness, that keeps getting weaker.
Are things cheap?
Yes, but markets over-swing in both directions... and where does that
long-term trend line for gold "potentially" take us?
The Baltic dry index has been down 15 days in a row. Commodities
are unwinding. The new SEA ETF has collapsed... oil, gas in correction.
The entire speculative move in commodities that began post Hurricane
Katrina is getting unwound.
Remember when I said to think about "Deflation" as an offensive weapon?
To beat the puppeteers you must think like a puppeteer - not a cheerleader.
What have the puppeteers now accomplished?
Cheap re-entry into China, cheap re-entry into commodities, cheap
re-entry into financial assets... all prior to a massive reflation.
Get the timing wrong -- and it doesn't matter if you got the story right,
now does it?
It's all mindset.
The time has arrived that you either "get it"... or, you don't.
I said goldbugs were soon going to reach a crossroads... and they did.
The line split...
10% went in one direction... and 90% went in the other.
And now that the tide has rolled out -- as Buffett says: we now get to
see who got caught swimming naked.
S.O.T.B. |
