re: options. I must also admit that, in the 2002-2004 time period, I bought longterm NTAP options, and lost money. I accurately picked the bottom, held while the stock soared, continued to hold (through over-exuberance, and an unwillingness to pay 40% cap-gains taxes), and watched my gains wither.
From experiences like that, I have learned to:
1. decide buy and sell ranges in advance
2. follow the plan, unless important underlying conditions change
3. take profits, and ignore the tax consequences. The only thing worse than paying taxes, is not having any profits to pay taxes on.
4. the prevailing sentiment is usually wrong
I am leaning towards using KLIC, rather than AMAT options, but I have decided nothing. Using either, I wouldn't buy now.
Using KLIC, I'd wait until the stock crosses above the 50-day moving average:
stockcharts.com
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