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Strategies & Market Trends : Peabody Coal vanguard retirement forum

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From: MACD X9/14/2008 8:32:01 PM
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09 15 08 remain in the bond fund

stockcharts.com

The above link is the funds available to us at peabody 401K plan.

Also as in the past nothing has changed, all the funds remain to be in a bearish formation except the bond fund and is the fund of choice over what we have to choose from.

This is going on a long time and I am sure that many of you wish we could make some money and be in a fund that is going to start moving upward.

Realize that in bear markets all funds basically fall, the object is to remain out of harms way until the bear market finishes.

There is no way to tell when this may be, as the Japan market has been in a bear market for 13 years. Of course there are have been counter trend rallys along the way where money could have been made but a new high in the Japan market hasnt happen sense 1990. Thats 18 years.

I dont believe this will be the case in this bear market but you never know whats going to happen. So until the chart shows some sign of bullishness I prefer to remain on the defensive and remain out of the exposure to stocks.

The largest one day gains in the stock market often occurr in bear markets, so dont get too excited if you see 3% up days in this area. It means nothing unless confirmed on the weekly charts above.

We will not catch the bottom as it occurs but hopefully be in pretty close, much as we did getting out. Sept is historically the worst months of all, that along with Oct but also have been some of the greatest entry points as well. I nice little mini crash would set up a good entry point for us over the long haul so what for a crash that may be coming very soon as we enter the bearish months of Sept and Oct.

below is a chart of the japan stock market it is a 20 year monthly chart, notice the last high was 1990 area, almost 20 years ago.

stockcharts.com
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