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Daily Tracking Poll Average: Palin Tanking Edition
by: tremayne
Sun Sep 14, 2008 at 22:32
There's been some debate over the relative advantage or disadvantage of the Obama campaign focusing too much on Sarah Palin. In a moment, I'll give an argument why focusing on her is win-win-win.
First, though, the tracking poll numbers. These were covered earlier today in quick hits but I'll recap here because the news is good for a change. McCain's lead in the tracking poll average had been in the 1-to-2 point range for almost a full week but today dropped to just a 0.25 point lead, 46.25 to 46.0. So my bold prediction from yesterday of the lead falling below 1 today was correct (full numbers on the inside).
Now, back to Palin. One of the 4 tracking polls, Research 2000 for dKos, has some interesting internals which show Palin in a steep favorability dive. Follow along for more.
Update: Almost forgot. I'd like to thank Tina Fey for accepting my plea for her to make cameos as Palin on SNL this fall.
tremayne :: Daily Tracking Poll Average: Palin Tanking Edition
The Research 2000 poll for dKos released Sept. 11 shows Palin at 52% favorable, 35% unfavorable, a 17-point net positive. Over the next several days look at the trend:
Sept. 11: +17 point net positive
Sept. 12: +14 point
Sept. 13: +9
Sept. 14: +5
Palin's unfavorables are up to 42 while here favorables are down to 47. Her Charlie Gibson interview and generally bad press for the McCain-Palin ticket are taking a toll. Here are Barack Obama's net positives for the same four days: 16, 16, 14 and 15 today. Joe Biden: 19, 19, 18 and 16 today. As for McCain, a similar pattern to Palin only not as steep a decline: 11, 13, 12 and 9.
Not reflected in the numbers released today are the SNL lampooning last night and the Sunday political shows which, although I didn't watch, apparently went after Palin hard.
Here are some reasons to keep the focus on Palin:
1. Keeping the press focused on Palin's gaffes and general inadequacy for the job prevents the McCain campaign from any positive news.
2. Any of the McCain bounce attributable to Palin will fade even quicker as the shine comes off Palin.
3. If Palin looks corrupt, unqualified, hypocritical and just generally bad, that automatically reflects on McCain and makes him look unprincipled and desperate. And as people start to realize how old he is it just makes it worse for them.
4. The more the focus is on her the more she looks like a female George Bush. This reinforces the main "story" the Obama campaign has been telling, McCain is Bush. Since some people may have doubted that given the 2000 Republican race, Palin helps clarify matters.
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