Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 348.51

+5.3%

4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Return to Sender who wrote (40198)	9/16/2008 9:06:18 AM
From: The Ox	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 95881

vixandmore.blogspot.com <snip>Rather than use the SPX and the VIX to demonstrate my point, the chart below uses the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX) and its companion volatility index, the VXN. The reason I chose the NDX is that from the March 24, 2000 peak (4816.35) to the October 8, 2002 bottom (795.25), the NDX lost an astonishing 83.5% of its value. If there was ever an opportunity to witness a dramatic drop and capitulation, this was the market and index in which to see it happen. If one looks at a chart of the NDX and the VXN for the period 2000-2002, five distinct VXN spikes stand out. I have highlighted these with a blue vertical line for easy reference in the chart below. It turns out that those who went long at the time of these volatility spikes saw anywhere from two weeks of a bounce to several months of mostly sideways action. None of these spikes signaled a lasting market bottom. When the NDX finally hit bottom (marked by the red vertical line and arrow), the VXN barely moved at all. Yes, the nastiest bear market of the last two decades ended with a volatility whimper. <snip>

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next