Not unless the difference between the 3-month T-bill rate and the true inflation rate is more than about 8%, and that very seldom happens.
You have to think of the 2% loss as insurance, preserving capital that can be reinvested in bargain basement stocks or whatever.
Now, as for me, I do not do that. Ever since bear market funds became available, I have had money in them. Right now, instead of cash, I have about 30% of investible assets in various leveraged bear market funds. But until now, these things (BEARX, RYVNX, QID, SRS, SKF, SDS, etc.--I have held them all) have been losers, especially in comparison with long term energy investments.
We will see if their time has finally come. I have considered all general equity markets to be continually overvalued since the later 1990s, maybe earlier. Easy credit, pensions funds, aggressively marketed mutual funds, etc., have kept stock indexes up. I am eve almost a bleiever in the PPT after seeing what Bernanke is willing to do in the past year. |
