The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (146904)	9/16/2008 10:49:51 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Probably all the larger builders will survive and get much stronger this downturn as they buy up land and existing infrastructure from the weak on the cheap that go under. Also costs of construction have now come down dramatically from 6-12 months ago offsetting home price declines. Probably the fact they are all so heavily shorted helps too.. Look at the charts from the 1991-98 period of any builder and they basically went sideways to up the entire time after a Fall 1990 bottom. New home construction was way below trend for that period.. The theme here of short homebuilders because '...housing sucks and credit is tight and the world is going to hell...' has been over IMHO as I have pointed out many times this year.. Nothing more than a trade for years to come..

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