Technical Analysis With Charts Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: TWICK who wrote (6814)	9/16/2008 7:33:00 PM
From: MACD X	Read Replies (1) of 6865

example of shifted stockcharts.com The question was asked to explain time cycles shift. It has been my observation with dealing with time cycles that they are fairly accurate within a trend, but when the trend reverses the accuaracy of the cycle often shifts. The example above is probably not a great one and I hope you can see it because its a 10 year monthly chart. [sometimes non stockcharts members cant see the longer term chart, so I hope you can.] The uptrend started with blue lines and after the uptrend ended these cycles became unreliable when the new down trend started, they shifted out of sink. When the down trend started the new cycles also started, marked in red ,and where accurate as long as the down trend was in progress but became less accurate when the new uptrend started. They shifted over slightly. What you are looking at on the chart are two sperate time cycles of different lengths, this is also another problem as differnt time cycles are also accuarate accross a chart, this is a fact on most charts. The key is to look for the time cycle that is best over the overall average of a long time frame and go with that. Tops and bottoms will be off slightly due to the trend effect, but they still provide some value as they may be close. Time cycles are just like all other T.A. they are correct at a percentage of more than 50% this gives you a gambling edge odds wise. Cycles are like most good tools probably accurate about 80% of the time. There is no holy grail and this is just a fact of life of a T. A. preson. We play the odds and try to understand the possiblitys, nothing is for certain.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next