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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: tradingfaster123 who wrote (109674)	9/17/2008 5:36:07 PM
From: gregor_us	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) of 206161

Hi. Just some thoughts here: You might also want to price in some credit problems, affecting smaller cap players in the space. I know that sounds alarmist, but look at the Teck-Fording deal. That was Bank of America balking on that one. We could see a period over the next 6 months when small players who do not have a core position in the Shale plays may find that if they need short-term financing they may not get it. And part of the reluctance may be just from the concerns you have been sharing, about NG supply next year. More broadly, look at Russia. Isn't it fascinating that their market melted down right as the price of oil went below the all-in taxes and duties costs, to any oil exporter? Thus making the export of oil a losing proposition, by at least 10 dollars? The credit crisis and the falling commodity prices look to me like events that could hit supply. Of course, demand could always move down faster. G

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