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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 344.71-1.1%4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (40315)9/20/2008 12:19:21 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95757
 
Bob, That was a very interesting description about the white spinning top. The following paragraph is from the description.

<<Like most other single candlestick patterns, the White Spinning Top has low reliability. It reflects only one day's trading and can be interpreted both as a continuation and a reversal pattern. This candlestick needs to be used with other candlesticks for a healthier confirmation of a trend.>>

As the paragraph states, it reflects only one day's trading, but in this case it covers a weeks trading. Not sure what, if any, difference this implies. However, this past week had very high volatility action not seen very often.

I am hoping it was a reversal pattern, but the fundamentals for the semi sector are not good right now. That isn't in itself so bad if we saw some "good times" on the horizon, but many analysts are pushing out the recovery in this sector further into 2009. This "pushout process" has been going on for a long time as evidenced by the SEMI Bookings data.

Message 24966164

Bookings hit a "peak" in June of 2006 of 1782M. Since then, except for a short term "blip" in the middle of 2007, the trend has been down. From the 1782M in June 2006, the just released Aug 2008 number of 884M is a 50 percent reduction in Bookings over the last 26 months.

At some point obviously, Bookings will increase, but when is the big question. Backlogs at companies continue to drop as Billings have exceeded Bookings since Jan 2007.

Message 24966211

Of course, Billings have been coming down as well as Bookings over the course of this downtrend. We can only hope the "bottom" gets here sooner than later to bring better stock prices.

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