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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 344.71

-1.1%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40319)	9/20/2008 10:33:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95761

HI Don. This is perhaps my happy rationalization: I think logic is about to morph into a new leadership. Memory has been junked by excess capacity and over investment in old technology. I believe logic will reinvent the Capex and memory will go the way of both Copper and SSD. Those who over invested in old technology will have a hard time recovering their investment. Creative destruction of sorts will force consolidation. Technology leaders will prevail and absorb those that either didn't invest or failed to get a proper reward from R*D investments. The winners will have cash flow to absorb the losers and grow strategically and organically. I think we are right on the edge of the sectors growth gaining respect,in a world where growth is very hard to find. Very much like October 98. Earnings were weak but backlog showed growth and the prices never looked back. Growth in a recession gets respect - even if tempid. Thus is the life of late cycle stock I.E. ORCL this week. BWDIK Bob

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