John - Re:" IF we agree that the current x86 will have
to be displaced..."
I don't agree. The x86 has been enhanced greatly, and should be able to be enhanced considerably more.
Let me continue my anology with autos. The gasoline/internal combustion engine has been around since the early part of this century (or perhaps earlier). Despite the oil crises we have experienced, the cost of gasoline has gone up, yet nothing has appeared on the scene that is economically more competitive than the gasoline engine. Liken this to an x86.
The gas mileage of cars has improved through innovations such as lighter cars (not lately), improved materials, fuel injection, computer controls, etc.
Intel is certainly subject to being displaced. As you noted, "Intel has grown on the strengh of a
very narrow focus, "
In the semi industry, they lead and dominate by virtue of this focus. They have jettisoned businesses that didn't make "sense"(CENTS = DOLLARS) and concentrated on the one(s) that do. In the age of specialization, they rank supreme.
Keeping our eyes open is required to be successful. I've kept a keen eye out for technologies that will knock Intel for a loop - they have come and gone. The "NC" is the latest, and I don't know if it is coming or going. Maybe Larry Ellison does, but I don't.
Some Clown named Roger S. Young made some postings yesterday about the latest threat to Intel (some Chinese SuperDuperSomethingOrOther). This vision must have come to him yesterday after he shorted several thousand shares of Intel. I'll keep an eye out for this, however.
Paul |
